The new favorites to win the Superbowl

The latest odds released by prominent gambling websites show that the Patriots are the new favorites to win Superbowl XLII. While this makes a lot of sense, what does not make sense is that the odds favor the Pats by a huge margin. For instance one website lists the odds for the Pats at 2 to 1 odds whereas the next team the Chargers have 6 to 1 odds followed by the Colts at 8 to 1. This means for every Dollar you bet on the Patriots you win two dollars if they actually end up winning the superbowl whereas if you bet on the Colts and they it all you get 8 dollars in return.

There are several reasons why ranking the Pats this high does not make any sense and neither does the ranking of several others especially the Colts and the Chargers.

1. While Belichick is one of the best coaches in the business and will definitely use the talent well, having talented players is no guarantee of success. Infact this was proved by none other than Belichick who stopped Peyton Manning and his fearsome offense in the playoffs two years in a row. When Peyton, Marvin Harrision, Reggie Wayne and a healthy Stokley could not score more than 3 points in a playoff game, what is the guarantee that having Moss, Stallworth and Wes Welker will guarantee an explosive offense against premier AFC defenses such as the Ravens or Chargers?

2. While the Patriots had a lot of important acquisitions in free agency, they still need these players to play well together. The Pats proved sceptics wrong when players considered risky such as Corey Dillon turned our to be excellent additions to the Patriots' superbowl run, can the Patriots have a 100% success rate? Is this not what the Eagles probably felt when they signed Terrell Owens, confident in the structure of their organization and the leadership in their locker room?

3. The Colts are the defending champs and they may not be as weak as they seem. The Colts are four times as less favored as the Pats? Makes no sense at all. The Colts drafted Anthony Gonzales and figure to be better than when Brandon Stokley was healthy and Peyton broke Marino's touchdown record. They have good replacements identified for the players they lost on defense and also had some good additions to their draft. Factor in the fact that the Colts cover -2 scheme can thrive well with fast and athletic players not necessarily skilled in any one position, the Colts are still in excellent position to defend their title.

4. Sure, the Patriots came close to going to another Superbowl and may have done so if some of their defensive players did not have the flu - but we should not forget that the Chargers virtually lost the divisional playoff game more than the Pats won it.

5. Lastly, the Chargers have a new coach, a new offensive coordinator & a new defensive coordinator. They still do not have any premier receivers and their new head coach does not have a great winning record as a head coach (even though he was a great offensive coord). Given all the change in the coaching staff, my prediction is that the Chargers will not win the AFC this year, regardless of the talent they have.