NFL Week 3 picks

I was 11-5 in my week 2 picks. Lets see how I fare this week.

Detroit over Philadelphia: 2-0 Detroit plays 0-2 Philadelphia - when was the last time that happened? As much as I think Philly will win this game, I pick the upset.

NY Jets over Miami: The Jets get their first win of the season, while Miami still searches for theirs as well as answers on offense!

New England over Buffalo: The Pats just seem unstoppable right now.

St. Louis over Tampa Bay : I picked the Rams last week and they did not win; will they let me down again this week?

Indianapolis over Houston: Houston is 2-0, but Indy will find a way to win - the great teams always do. The loss of Andre Johnson will also hurt Houston.

Cincinnati at Seattle: The loss to the Browns was unexpected, but the Bengals are likely to bounce back. At the least, they will more than likely outscore the Seahawks

Chicago over Dallas: The Cowboys offense has been potent, but the Bears defense will match up well.

Rest of the games:

Baltimore over Arizona

Pittsburgh over San Francisco

San Diego over Green Bay

Minnesota over Kansas City

Oakland over Cleveland

Denver over Jacksonville

Washington over NY Giants

Carolina over Atlanta

Tennessee over New Orleans

Dissecting my week 2 picks

Since all games except one have been played, lets take a look at how I fared with my picks for week 2. Seems like I picked most of the upsets correctly, but some of the ones that seemed obvious were way wrong :)

Incorrect Predictions (5):

New Orleans over Tampa: What is wrong with the Saints' offense? How did they get to this from being so good last year??

Carolina over Houston: Nice 2-0 start for Houston, given that just over a year ago, they had only won 2 games in the entire season.

St. Louis over SF, Giants over Green Bay, Cincinnati over Cleveland,

Correct Predictions(10):

Indy over the Titans: The Indy defense was not as prolific as I expected, but they managed to get out of Nashville with a win.

Dallas over Miami: The Cowboys offense continues to roll.

Arizona over Seattle: My upset pick for the week :)

New England over San Diego: The one thing I stated incorrectly about this game was that "it would be a hard-fought win for the Pats". They did not have to work that hard after all!

Denver over Oakland: That was one shrewd timeout called by Shanahan. Thats got to hurt for Raiders fans!

Pittsburgh over Buffalo, Jacksonville over Atlanta, Ravens over the Jets, Chicago over KC, Detroit over Minnesota

Will Washington upset Philadelphia tonight?

NFL week 2 picks

Anything can happen on a given Sunday in the NFL and even the most experienced people get their picks wrong. As they say, that is why they play the game :) Yet, here are my picks for week 2.

New Orleans over Tampa: The Saints get their offensive groove back and beat the Bucs

Jacksonville over Atlanta: The Falcons get their second straight loss and all sportswriters start discussing if they will be in the Brian Brohm sweepstakes!

Indy over the Titans: The new Indy defense flexes its muscle again and contains Vince Young. Freddy Keiaho's injury will be a concern. The Indy offense continues to do what it usually does. Will Nick Harper get burned as bad as Jason David?

St. Louis over SF: As much as Orlando Pace's injury is a concern, I think the media is blowing it out of proportion. The Rams score enough points to win.

Dallas over Miami: The defence is hurting from injuries, but the offense does enough to get the win.

Ravens over the Jets: Kellen Klemens has a decent game, but its tough to fact that scary Ravens defense on the road.

Arizona over Seattle: Edgerrin James runs through the Seahawks defense and the Cardinals manage to get their first win of the season.

New England over San Diego: Coming off a tough week with the video taping scandal, the Patriots are charged up and get a hard fought win over the Chargers.

Giants over Green Bay: Assuming Eli Manning starts and is not hampered by the shoulder injury

Rest of the games:

Denver over Oakland, Chicago over KC, Detroit over Minnesota, Cincinnati over Cleveland, Pittsburgh over Buffalo, Carolina over Houston, Washington over Philadelphia

Salary of $1 million per game?

ESPN.com reports that Jamarcus Russell's contract with the Raiders will pay him $34.5 million over the first three years. Given the $37 million in guarantees, it can be safely assumed that unless there is anything major, the Raider will not release him till he plays for at least two full seasons. Having missed all of training camp and the preseason, Russell is well behind McCown and Culpepper in the depth chart. The chances of him starting this season are extremely low and he is more likely to be able to start only next season. Even assuming neither of McCown nor Culpepper pulls a Drew Brees and keeps Russell on the bench next season too, Russell will more than likely get the $34 million for playing 16 regular season games, which works out to more than $1 million a game! All this money for someone who has not thrown a single pass in the NFL yet.

1. If Oakland is willing to guanrantee this kind of money for two years of play, why did they not pay him a little extra much earlier and got him into training camp on time?

2. The NFL really needs to address the issue of rookie salaries. Six year contracts worth more than half of one years salary cap for the entire team is just way too high.

The upcoming clash of the two "powerhouses"

Both Notre Dame and Michigan have had a dismal start to the season, but one of them is guaranteed to win next week. This is because the two teams play each other. This was a potential clash of two powerhouses and a game that was supposed to have national title implications - not any more.

In my previous post, I had questioned if Charlie Weiss's genius was in large part a reflection of the talent of the two Bradys (and the influence of Bill Belichick's genius). Notre Dame had another dismal offensive showing against the Nittany Lions today. Some of the lowlights included

- No offensive touchdowns

- 2/16 third down conversions

- 0/1 4th down conversions

- Just 144 total yards - ALL of which were passing

Zero rushing yards??? Has that ever happened before? 26 minutes of possesion time and no rushing yards? All this after the team had one week to "rebound" from another humiliating performance?

Michigan did not fare too well either.

The loser of next week's game has a lot more to lose than the winner has to gain!

A tale of two Bradys

Just as you cannot trace a curve with just one sample point, it is probably not correct to draw a whole lot of conclusions based on one football game. However, Notredame's stinker against Georgia Tech on Saturday, presents a different side of some of the hottest topics of discussion.

1. Was Brady Quinn really nothing but a reflection of Charlie Weiss's genius?

Brady Quinn watched 21 teams pass on him before Cleveland traded back intothe first round to draft him. The common justification was that he could not perform in the big games and that his success was essentially the result of playing for Charlie Weiss. After all, Charlie Weiss was the guy who coached Tom Brady. Quinn had absolutely no chance trying to fight All those Superbowl rings to take any sort of credit. However, this Saturday, ND used three QBs and yet did not score a single TD. On the other hand, Brady Quinn has been showing promise in his offseason performances. The NE offense is still as potent as it was without Weiss in the picture and if half the NE defense was not ill and hence unable to hold on to a huge first half lead in the AFC Championship, NE would have been playing in another Superbowl with Brady throwing to secondary recievers. This raises the question if Weiss was the reason for the success of the two Brady's or if it was the other way around.

2. Did Miami miss the chance to finally draft their franchise QB -again?

Miami passed on Drew Brees only to see him lead the Saints to the NFC Championship, less than a year after they had the second worst record in the league. The Dolphins went with Ted Ginn Jr in the draft despite all those stories of the "successful" interviews Quinn had with the Dolphins where he was asked to diagram all the ND plays in less than 7 minutes etc. Given the question above, would Quinn have been a much better choice? Did Miami miss their chance again?

3. Was ND too hasty in extending Weiss's contract?

There was a ton of discussion about how Ty Willingham had an equally good start at ND, yet ND chose to award Weiss with a hefty extension but chose not to do the same with the former coach. Will this game prove the naysayers right or will ND turn their season around and exonerate Weiss?

The next few weeks should be very interesting to watch!

The futility of Mock Drafts

Several sportswriters are publishing mock drafts for 2008 now. NOW!!!! Even one day before the 2007 draft, most of them did not have even 5 picks right in the first round and none of the draft I read had Brady Quinn falling out of the top 10 (I actually predicted in a sportsline.com message boardpost that he would fall all the way down to the Packers and got a lot of flak in return). Everyone said that Miami at No 9 was his safety net and it was unlikely he would even get past the Vikings at No 7. We know how well those predictions turned out - including my prediction of the Packers picking him at 16.

Regardless, whats the point of a mock draft for 2008 one year in advance when they could not even get it right one day earlier? One the other hand maybe its not so bad because the predictions are all useless anyways...

Can LeBron's get past the Jets?

The Cavaliers won Game 1 of their series against the Nets, but barely made it despite the Nets having a very bad day. The Nets shot less than 40% - Jason Kidd made just 2 out of 11 shots from the field and 2 out of 7 3-pointers, including missing his first five field goal attempts. Vince Carter made just one field goal in the third quarter and none in the fourth. Despite this the Cavs had only a four point margin of victory.

Most sportswriters have predicted that the Nets will bounce back in Game 2 with a vengence. However, I think the game 1 victory will make the Cavs more confident and they will take a 2-0 lead. Game starts in an hour.... :-)

The Yankees give up on their diet

Just like a short-lived crash diet, the Yankees have given up on trying to reduce their bloated $195 million payroll. Faced with an absolute lack of pitching the Yankees decided to bring back Roger Clemens paying him almost $4.5 million a month. That works out to more than $500,000 approx per day of work.

Not only that, the Yankees have bent the rules and are giving him special previliges (similar to what he had with the Astros) such as not having to show up on days he is not pitching - this is the team that made Johnny Damon get a haircut :) Remember the flak that Sammy Sosa took when he allegedly left the dugout before a game was over when he was with the Cubs? Surprising how so many writers feel Roger has "earned" the right to demand this.

The Yankees feel desperate measures are needed especially when they are losing games with that awesome batting lineup. But is throwing money at the problem the solution (to be fair that is the solution the Yankees have used very often in the past :))? Clemens is 45 years old and he has to start slowing down sometime...with the bad luck the Yankees have been having with their pitching this season, it is possibly going to be now!!

The new favorites to win the Superbowl

The latest odds released by prominent gambling websites show that the Patriots are the new favorites to win Superbowl XLII. While this makes a lot of sense, what does not make sense is that the odds favor the Pats by a huge margin. For instance one website lists the odds for the Pats at 2 to 1 odds whereas the next team the Chargers have 6 to 1 odds followed by the Colts at 8 to 1. This means for every Dollar you bet on the Patriots you win two dollars if they actually end up winning the superbowl whereas if you bet on the Colts and they it all you get 8 dollars in return.

There are several reasons why ranking the Pats this high does not make any sense and neither does the ranking of several others especially the Colts and the Chargers.

1. While Belichick is one of the best coaches in the business and will definitely use the talent well, having talented players is no guarantee of success. Infact this was proved by none other than Belichick who stopped Peyton Manning and his fearsome offense in the playoffs two years in a row. When Peyton, Marvin Harrision, Reggie Wayne and a healthy Stokley could not score more than 3 points in a playoff game, what is the guarantee that having Moss, Stallworth and Wes Welker will guarantee an explosive offense against premier AFC defenses such as the Ravens or Chargers?

2. While the Patriots had a lot of important acquisitions in free agency, they still need these players to play well together. The Pats proved sceptics wrong when players considered risky such as Corey Dillon turned our to be excellent additions to the Patriots' superbowl run, can the Patriots have a 100% success rate? Is this not what the Eagles probably felt when they signed Terrell Owens, confident in the structure of their organization and the leadership in their locker room?

3. The Colts are the defending champs and they may not be as weak as they seem. The Colts are four times as less favored as the Pats? Makes no sense at all. The Colts drafted Anthony Gonzales and figure to be better than when Brandon Stokley was healthy and Peyton broke Marino's touchdown record. They have good replacements identified for the players they lost on defense and also had some good additions to their draft. Factor in the fact that the Colts cover -2 scheme can thrive well with fast and athletic players not necessarily skilled in any one position, the Colts are still in excellent position to defend their title.

4. Sure, the Patriots came close to going to another Superbowl and may have done so if some of their defensive players did not have the flu - but we should not forget that the Chargers virtually lost the divisional playoff game more than the Pats won it.

5. Lastly, the Chargers have a new coach, a new offensive coordinator & a new defensive coordinator. They still do not have any premier receivers and their new head coach does not have a great winning record as a head coach (even though he was a great offensive coord). Given all the change in the coaching staff, my prediction is that the Chargers will not win the AFC this year, regardless of the talent they have.